Barstool’s EURO 2016 Semifinals Preview & Betting Guide
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies
Hi haters,
Copa is done and the Euros are coming to a close. It is times like these that I thank my lucky stars that I never developed the capacity to look more than a couple of hours into the future or else I’d be petrified about facing a world where European soccer will really and truly be shutting down for a month or two. Thankfully we’ve still got MLS to keep us from jumping off the ledge. [Note: if you just thought to yourself, “But what about the International Champions Cup?” please go ahead and punch yourself in the testicles… these ‘games’ may be fun to attend in person but they are just glorified practices that in no way, shape or form represent real soccer.]
So instead of looking ahead to the big, bad, scary future, let’s instead focus on the fantasmical games coming up today and tomorrow…
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UEFA EURO 2016
From a pure quality of play standpoint, the quarterfinals may have been a little disappointing, but the ballsack-shrinking drama provided by each game more than made up for it. When you see battle-hardened Jerries like Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller and Bastian Schweinsteiger taking penalty kicks as if they were a freshman who just grew his first pube and got called up to play in a varsity game… you know it is a momentous occasion.
As a reminder, here were the odds of lifting the trophy before the first ball was kicked:
Now that the field has been whittled down to the final four, here’s how things look heading into the semifinals:
I’m no actuarial genius, in fact basic computational skills usually make my brain ache, but if I was sitting on a 80/1 Wales ticket at the moment I’d definitely consider hedging my little balls off. Either way, this is what we’ve got in store over the next two days:
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WEDNESDAY (2pm CT on ESPN)
Portugal [+110]
Wales [+325]
Draw [+205]
Ronnie vs Bale! RONNIE VS BALE!
Yeah yeah yeah, the Madrid Dærby is going to get all the hype. And rightly so to a certain extent since anybody who suggests somebody other than these two is “the most important player on the field” for either team they are simply trying way, way, way, way too hard.
Having said that, soccer is a team game and the play from the supporting cast members will be an important deciding element in who ends up moving on to the final.
Given that there are a number of storylines that might catch your eye, including how poor Portugal’s midfield has been all tournament or how light’s out Wales’ defense has played. However, those are mere distractions from the one and only non “Ronnie vs Bale” aspect that matters: the absence of Aaron Ramsey (and Ben Davies), which will make all the difference in this game. I have complained numerous times on twitter about the stupidity of the yellow card accumulation rule and this is a PERFECT example of how overly punitive it is. Ramsey (and Davies) got a second yellow card in FIVE games and now have to miss the semifinal. Way to do your best to ruin the spectacle of your own tournament UEFA. Anyway, long story short, no Ramsey (and Davies) will ultimately be Wales undoing.
Prediction: Portugal to win 3-1 (on a brace from Ronnie)
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THURSDAY (2pm CT on ESPN)
Germany [+190]
France [+170]
Draw [+200]
What a game. What a god damn game. Germany facing off against Italy in the quarterfinals was a bit of a shame but at the same time watching the Italians – as masterful as they were at doing what they could with the talent on hand – was a bit like watching Atletico Madrid on equine steroids. Germany versus France, on the other hand, will be two of the most talented teams in the world going after one another, trading haymakers for 90 minutes. I’ve got a sportsboner just thinking about this game.
Truth be told, Germany is not the Germany of World Cup 2014. Mario Gomez’s bum hamstring leaves them with no obvious out and out striker. What’s more, the krauts will also be without Mats Hummels, Sami Khedira and Schweinie due to suspensions and injuries. That is a lottttttttttttttttttttttttt of key players (plus – but not including – a captain) that they will have to account for the losses of. [UPDATE: Schweinie has subsequently been ruled fit and is in the starting XI… however, given his advanced age and France’s stacked midfield, I do not consider this to be a “good thing” for Ze Germans.]
France is coming off its best performance of the tournament, and it is always a good sign when a team appears to improve as the competition goes on, which combined with their home field advantage, the fact they have three of the top scorers and have a grand total of ZERO injury/suspension concerns… make them the rightful favorites in this one.
Call me crazy, but my crystal ball is calling for France to revert to their usual “coming up small in big games” self in this puppy. Offensively the frog-eaters have been solid, but their defensive frailties will at long last come back to haunt them as Germany – with Julian Draxler slotting in opposite Ozil, supported by Kroos – will find a way to get Muller in position to score two of the ugliest goals this world has ever seen.
Prediction: Germany to win 2-1
[Note: if the mark of a great bet is how much you immediately question it, this is likely the best bet of all time.]
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So there you have it. God bless the soccer gods for the past few weeks. Got one more big’n coming up on SUNDAY.
Holler,
Sam U.L. Army